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Erdbebensimulation im Computer : Erwartungen, Grenzen und Herausforderungen der vierdimensionalen Computersimulation von Erdbeben-Szenarien für das Marmarameer südlich von Istanbul

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Heidbach,  Oliver
Vol. 3, Issue 1 (2013), GFZ Journal 2013, System Erde : GFZ Journal, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;
2.6 Seismic Hazard and Stress Field, 2.0 Physics of the Earth, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Hergert,  Tobias
Vol. 3, Issue 1 (2013), GFZ Journal 2013, System Erde : GFZ Journal, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/stro

Stromeyer,  Dietrich
Vol. 3, Issue 1 (2013), GFZ Journal 2013, System Erde : GFZ Journal, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;
2.6 Seismic Hazard and Stress Field, 2.0 Physics of the Earth, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/ggrue

Grünthal,  Gottfried
Vol. 3, Issue 1 (2013), GFZ Journal 2013, System Erde : GFZ Journal, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;
2.6 Seismic Hazard and Stress Field, 2.0 Physics of the Earth, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

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GFZ_syserde.03.01.07.pdf
(Verlagsversion), 420KB

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Zitation

Heidbach, O., Hergert, T., Stromeyer, D., Grünthal, G. (2013): Erdbebensimulation im Computer: Erwartungen, Grenzen und Herausforderungen der vierdimensionalen Computersimulation von Erdbeben-Szenarien für das Marmarameer südlich von Istanbul. - System Erde, 3, 1, 46-53.
https://doi.org/10.2312/GFZ.syserde.03.01.7


Zitierlink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_124326
Zusammenfassung
Earthquake hazard assessment with respect to megacities is one of the key challenges in Geosciences. Istanbul is one of these cities due to its location about 15 km north of a major tectonic plate boundary that separates the Eurasian plate from the Anatolian plate. Whereas the possible magnitude range and location of expected earthquakes can be determined with computer simulations, the precise timing in advance is not possible. Nevertheless, computer simulations of earthquake scenarios are an important tool that represents the deterministic seismic hazard assessment. Currently our research focuses on the quantification of model parameter uncertainties by means of assessing the results of earthquake-scenario simulation with statistical methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. The on-going rapid increase in computing power will, in the future, enable us to simulate multiple ensembles of earthquake scenarios as done in meteorological weather forecasts in order to assess which of the simulated scenarios is the most probable to occur. The key mathematical tools in this type of modelling are numerical methods that solve the partial differential equations that describe the equilibrium of forces for the earthquake nucleation and time-dependent statistical methods that quantify the uncertainties of the models. For Istanbul this research is essential since the tectonic fault has not ruptured since 1766. The fault is mature and has the potential to produce an earthquake of Mw > 7.