Sensitivity analysis of hydraulic and thermal parameters inducing anomalous 
heat flow in the Lower Yarmouk Gorge

Koltzer, Nora; Inbar, Nimrod; Kühn, M.; Möller, Peter; Rosenthal, Eliyahu; Schneider, Michael; Siebert, Christian; Magri, F.

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Sensitivity analysis of hydraulic and thermal parameters inducing anomalous heat flow in the Lower Yarmouk Gorge

Authors

/persons/resource/koltzer

Koltzer, Nora
6.1 Basin Modelling, 6.0 Geotechnologies, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Inbar, Nimrod
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/mkuehn

Kühn, M.
3.4 Fluid Systems Modelling, 3.0 Geochemistry, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/pemoe

Möller, Peter
3.4 Fluid Systems Modelling, 3.0 Geochemistry, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Rosenthal, Eliyahu
External Organizations;

Schneider, Michael
External Organizations;

Siebert, Christian
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/fabienma

Magri, F.
0 Pre-GFZ, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

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http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2016/EGU2016-9211.pdf
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Citation

Koltzer, N., Inbar, N., Kühn, M., Möller, P., Rosenthal, E., Schneider, M., Siebert, C., Magri, F. (2016): Sensitivity analysis of hydraulic and thermal parameters inducing anomalous heat flow in the Lower Yarmouk Gorge, (Geophysical Research Abstracts ; Vol. 18, EGU2016-9211), General Assembly European Geosciences Union (Vienna 2016).

Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_1885904

Abstract

The Lower Yarmouk Gorge, at the border between Israel and Jordan, is characterized by an anomalous temperature gradient of 46 ◦ C/km. Numerical simulations of thermally-driven flow show that ascending thermal waters are the result of mixed convection, i.e. the interaction between the regional flow from the surrounding heights and buoyant flow within permeable faults [1]. Those models were calibrated against available temperature logs by running several forward problems (FP), with a classic “trial and error” method. In the present study, inverse problems (IP) are applied to find alternative parameter distributions that also lead to the observed thermal anomalies. The investigated physical parameters are hydraulic conductivity and thermal conductivity. To solve the IP, the PEST® code [2] is applied via the graphical interface FEPEST® in FEFLOW® [3]. The results show that both hydraulic and thermal conductivity are consistent with the values determined with the trial and error calibrations, which precede this study. However, the IP indicates that the hydraulic conductivity of the Senonian Paleocene aquitard can be 8.54*10-3 m/d, which is three times lower than the originally estimated value in [1]. Moreover, the IP suggests that the hydraulic conductivity in the faults can increase locally up to 0.17 m/d. These highly permeable areas can be interpreted as local damage zones at the faults/units intersections. They can act as lateral pathways in the deep aquifers that allow deep outflow of thermal water. This presentation provides an example about the application of FP and IP to infer a wide range of parameter values that reproduce observed environmental issues.