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  Stress inversion in a gelatin box: testing eruptive vent location forecasts with analog models.

Mantiloni, L., Davis, T., Gaete Rojas, A. B., Rivalta, E. (2021): Stress inversion in a gelatin box: testing eruptive vent location forecasts with analog models. - Geophysical Research Letters, 48, 6, e2020GL090407.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090407

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Item Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5005550 Version Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5005550_3
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Mantiloni, Lorenzo1, Author              
Davis, Timothy1, Author              
Gaete Rojas, Ayleen Barbara1, Author              
Rivalta, E.1, Author              
Affiliations:
12.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146029              

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 Abstract: Assessing volcanic hazard in regions of distributed volcanism is challenging because of the uncertain location of future vents. A statistical‐mechanical strategy to forecast such locations was recently proposed: here we further develop and test it with analog models. We stress a gelatin block laterally and with surface excavations, and observe air‐filled crack trajectories. We use the observed surface arrivals to sample the distributions of parameters describing the stress state of the gelatin block, combining deterministic crack trajectory simulations with a Monte Carlo approach. While the individual stress parameters remain unconstrained, we effectively retrieve their ratio and successfully forecast the arrival points of subsequent cracks.

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 Dates: 20212021
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1029/2020GL090407
GFZPOF: p4 T3 Restless Earth
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Title: Geophysical Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 48 (6) Sequence Number: e2020GL090407 Start / End Page: - Identifier: ISSN: 1944-8007
ISSN: 0094-8276
CoNE: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals182
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)