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  Moisture budget perspective on impact of cloud microphysics, soil moisture, and initial condition uncertainties for predicting strongly forced deep convection

Miltenberger, A., Barthlott, C., Takumi, M., Puh, M., Keil, C., Kuntze, P., Hoose, C., Kunz, M. (2023): Moisture budget perspective on impact of cloud microphysics, soil moisture, and initial condition uncertainties for predicting strongly forced deep convection, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3069

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Datensatz-Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020467 Versions-Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020467_1
Genre: Konferenzbeitrag

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 Urheber:
Miltenberger, Annette1, Autor
Barthlott, Christian1, Autor
Takumi, Matsunobu1, Autor
Puh, Matjaž1, Autor
Keil, Christian1, Autor
Kuntze, Patrick1, Autor
Hoose, Corinna1, Autor
Kunz, Michael1, Autor
Affiliations:
1IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations, ou_5011304              

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 Zusammenfassung: Precipitation formation by deep convective storms is controlled by a complex interplay of larger-scale forcing, available moist static energy, cloud dynamics, and cloud microphysical processes. The representation of the related atmospheric properties and processes is subject to large uncertainties in numerical weather prediction models, even at the kilometer-scale resolution. Quantifying the impact of different uncertainty sources for the prediction of deep convective systems as well as understanding the propagation and growth of moisture error is essential for our physical understanding of deep convection but also the design of ensemble forecasting systems.Based on a supercell hailstorm event close to Munich in June 2019, we quantify the impact of meteorological initial (and lateral boundary) condition, soil moisture content, and cloud microphysics perturbations on precipitation and surface hail prediction in a 420-member high-resolution ensemble dataset. The joint initial conditions and perturbed physics ensemble allows us to also investigate interaction effects of different model perturbations. Further, we investigate the impact of the various sources of uncertainty on the regional moisture budget in the vicinity and downstream of the simulated deep convective storms.Our results indicate that cloud microphysics perturbations and initial condition uncertainties are equally important for hail resulting in a strongly enhanced spread in the joint ensemble. For total precipitation, initial condition uncertainty is more important. Cloud microphysical perturbations are further found to modify the water content in the deep convective outflow and enhance variability in the upper-tropospheric moisture fluxes to downstream regions compared to the initial condition only ensemble.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2023-07-112023-07-11
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
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 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
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 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.57757/IUGG23-3069
 Art des Abschluß: -

Veranstaltung

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Titel: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Veranstaltungsort: Berlin
Start-/Enddatum: 2023-07-11 - 2023-07-20

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Titel: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Genre der Quelle: Konferenzband
 Urheber:
Affiliations:
Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: Potsdam : GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
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