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Abstract:
Projections of glacier mass change impact sea level rise, water resources, natural hazards, tourism, and cultures. Here we present projections of global glacier changes, excluding the ice sheets, for ensembles of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways that are aggregated into policy-relevant temperature change scenarios. These temperature change scenarios highlight the impact that reducing temperature increase has on reducing glacier mass loss, glacier contributions to sea-level rise, and preventing widespread deglaciation in many regions. Projections are performed using a hybrid of the Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM) and Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), which are two open-source large-scale glacier evolution models. Major model improvements will be discussed including advances to PyGEM’s Bayesian calibration scheme, modeling of physical processes (e.g., glacier dynamics, frontal ablation, and debris cover), and the integration of new glacier change datasets. We will conclude by discussing PyGEM’s future direction, the incorporation of upcoming glacier change datasets, and continued improvements to support its use by the greater community thereby reducing the barrier to conduct research on global glacier evolution modeling.
