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  Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information

Steirou, E.-S., Gerlitz, L., Sun, X., Apel, H., Agarwal, A., Totz, S., Merz, B. (2022): Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information. - Scientific Reports, 12, 13514.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1

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Steirou, Eva-Styliani1, Autor              
Gerlitz, Lars1, Autor              
Sun, Xun2, Autor
Apel, H.1, Autor              
Agarwal, Ankit1, Autor              
Totz, Sonja2, Autor
Merz, B.1, Autor              
Affiliations:
14.4 Hydrology, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146048              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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Schlagwörter: DEAL Springer Nature
 Zusammenfassung: We investigate whether the distribution of maximum seasonal streamflow is significantly affected by catchment or climate state of the season/month ahead. We fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to extreme seasonal streamflow for around 600 stations across Europe by conditioning the GEV location and scale parameters on 14 indices, which represent the season-ahead climate or catchment state. The comparison of these climate-informed models with the classical GEV distribution, with time-constant parameters, suggests that there is a substantial potential for seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities. The potential varies between seasons and regions. Overall, the season-ahead catchment wetness shows the highest potential, although climate indices based on large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature or sea ice concentration also show some skill for certain regions and seasons. Spatially coherent patterns and a substantial fraction of climate-informed models are promising signs towards early alerts to increase flood preparedness already a season ahead.

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 Datum: 20222022
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
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 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1
OATYPE: Hybrid - DEAL Springer Nature
GFZPOF: p4 T5 Future Landscapes
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Titel: Scientific Reports
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, OA
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 12 Artikelnummer: 13514 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals2_395
Publisher: Springer Nature