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DEAL Springer Nature
Abstract:
Quantitative estimation of seismic risk over a region requires both an underlying probabilistic seismic hazard model and a means to characterise shallow site response over a large scale. The 2020 European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20) builds on the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20), requiring additional information to firstly parameterise the local site condition across all of Europe, and subsequently determine its influence on the prediction of seismic ground motion. Initially, a harmonised digital geological database for Europe is compiled, alongside a model of topographic/bathymetric elevation and a database of 30 m averaged shearwave velocity measurements (VS30), in order to produce separate 30 arc-second maps of inferred VS30 based on topography and on geology. We then capitalise on a large database of seismic recording stations in Europe for which site-to-site ground motion residuals (δS2SS) have been determined with respect to the shallow crustal ground motion model used in the ESHM20. These residuals allow us to incorporate site amplification functions into the European GMM calibrated upon either observed or inferred VS30, or on the European geology and topography models. We present the resulting pan-European seismic site amplification model and assess its impact on seismic hazard and risk compared against other approaches. The new site amplification model fulfils the requirements of the ESRM20 and, providing uncertainty is fully propagated, yields estimates of seismic hazard and risk at a large space scale that may be comparable to other methods often applied at local/urban scale where better-constrained site information is available.
