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  In retrospect: Swarm, IGRF and other models, simple forecast assessments

Rother, M., Korte, M. (2023): In retrospect: Swarm, IGRF and other models, simple forecast assessments, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-1870

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 Urheber:
Rother, Martin1, Autor
Korte, Monika1, Autor
Affiliations:
1IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations, ou_5011304              

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 Zusammenfassung: The forecast of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field, `IGRF SV', passed half of the update period of five years, and the prominent model of the Earth's magnetic field, `CHAOS', is updated in somewhat of a routine fashion, meanwhile a few times a year.&nbsp; The `CHAOS' model uses for its short forecasts (delivered separately from product table in the format used by the Swarm satellite mission) just a simple extrapolation. Which simple numerical methods are appropriate or at least sufficient for such forecasts?<br><br>Some basic fast, numeric or statistical approaches (as simple linear or polynomial fits and autoregressive forecasting) are compared by the error they give in the light of the available updates.&nbsp; The retrospective errors for delivered products (i.e. the Swarm core field auxiliary product, 'AUX_COR') and from dedicated numerical experiments are assessed and summarized.&nbsp; This may (or may not) create hints for the required update frequency, if not for the most suitable method. Also, extrapolation tests can be useful to get an idea about the uncertainty of predictions for (non-physics-based) parent models of candidates for the incoming `IGRF' - and to outline an acceptable strategy.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2023
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: -
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.57757/IUGG23-1870
 Art des Abschluß: -

Veranstaltung

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Titel: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Veranstaltungsort: Berlin
Start-/Enddatum: 2023-07-11 - 2023-07-20

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Titel: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Genre der Quelle: Konferenzband
 Urheber:
Affiliations:
Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: Potsdam : GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
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