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  Overturning pathways control AMOC weakening in CMIP6 models

Baker, J., Bell, M., Jackson, L., Renshaw, R., Vallis, G., Watson, A., Wood, R. (2023): Overturning pathways control AMOC weakening in CMIP6 models, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-1606

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Item Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5017998 Version Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5017998_1
Genre: Conference Paper

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 Creators:
Baker, Jonathan1, Author
Bell, Mike1, Author
Jackson, Laura1, Author
Renshaw, Richard1, Author
Vallis, Geoffrey1, Author
Watson, Andrew1, Author
Wood, Richard1, Author
Affiliations:
1IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations, ou_5011304              

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 Abstract: Future projections indicate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken and shoal in response to global warming, but models disagree widely over the amount of weakening. We analyse the overturning pathways in 27 CMIP6 models to assess their impact on this weakening. Models with a larger pathway of North Atlantic Deep Water into the Indo-Pacific Ocean that is upwelled by diffusion, but does not later upwell in the Southern Ocean, weaken most in response to warming. The historical magnitude of this Indo-Pacific pathway is a stronger predictor of AMOC weakening than the historical AMOC strength. The strong relationship between this pathway and AMOC weakening is due, in part, to the historical magnitude of this pathway acting as an upper limit on the magnitude of its reduction. Decreases in this pathway are related to decreases in the Atlantic diffusive upwelling pathway, whereas the pathway that upwells via the Southern Ocean winds remains relatively steady. An emergent constraint relationship constrained by the Indo-Pacific pathway inferred from four observation-based estimates implies a wide range of AMOC weakening under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario of 29% to 61% by 2100. Our results suggest that improved observational constraints on this pathway could substantially reduce uncertainty in future AMOC decline.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.57757/IUGG23-1606
 Degree: -

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Title: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Place of Event: Berlin
Start-/End Date: 2023-07-11 - 2023-07-20

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Title: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Source Genre: Proceedings
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Publ. Info: Potsdam : GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
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