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Abstract:
More than 800 million people live in proximity to active volcanoes and could be directly impacted by potential eruptions. Mitigation of future volcanic hazards requires adequate warning of a pending eruption, which, in turn, requires detailed understanding of the fundamental processes driving volcanic activity. In this Review, we discuss the processes leading up to volcanic eruptions, by following the journey of magma from crustal storage zones to the surface. Magma reservoirs can feed volcanic eruptions if they contain sufficiently hot and mobile magma and are able to supply sufficient energy for the magma to reach the surface. Young volcanic plumbing systems favour volcanic activity, whereas storage becomes more likely in mature volcanic systems with large reservoirs (hundreds of cubic kilometres). Anticipating volcanic activity requires a multidisciplinary approach, as real-time monitoring and geophysical surveys must be combined with petrology and the eruptive history to understand the temporal evolution of volcanic systems over geological timescales. Numerical modelling serves to link different observational timescales, and the inversion of data sets with physics-based statistical approaches is a promising way forward to advance our understanding of the processes controlling recurrence rate and magnitude of volcanic eruptions.
