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Abstract:
The projected increase in temperature is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, and thus more intense
precipitation is likely to increase hydro-meteorological extremes and flood hazard. However to assess the future
dynamics of hazard and impact induced by these changes it is necessary to consider extreme events and to take a
spatially differentiated perspective.
The Future Danube Model is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region which has been developed
in the OASIS project. The model comprises modules for estimating potential perils from heavy precipitation,
heat-waves, floods, droughts, and damage risk considering hydro-climatic extremes under current and climate
change conditions. Web-based open Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology allows customers to
graphically analyze and overlay perils and other spatial information such as population density or assets exposed.
The Future Danube Model combines modules for weather generation, hydrological and hydrodynamic processes,
and supports risk assessment and adaptation planning support.
This contribution analyses changes in flood hazard in the Danube basin and in flood risk for the German part
of the Danube basin. As climate change input, different regionalized climate ensemble runs of the newest IPCC
generation are used, the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They are delivered by the
CORDEX initiative (Coordinated Downscaling Experiments). The CORDEX data sample is extended using the
statistical weather generator (IMAGE) in order to also consider extreme events. Two time slices are considered:
near future 2020-2049 and far future 2050-2079. This data provides the input for the hydrological, hydraulic and
flood loss model chain. Results for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 indicate an increase in intensity and frequency of peak
discharges and thus in flood hazard for many parts of the Danube basin.
