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  A statistical method to validate reconstructions of late-glacial relative sea level – Application to shallow water shells rated as low-grade sea-level indicators

Latinovic, M., Klemann, V., Irrgang, C., Bagge, M., von Specht, S., Thomas, M. (2018): A statistical method to validate reconstructions of late-glacial relative sea level – Application to shallow water shells rated as low-grade sea-level indicators. - Climate of the Past Discussions.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-50

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 Creators:
Latinovic, Milena1, Author              
Klemann, V.1, Author              
Irrgang, C.1, Author              
Bagge, Meike1, Author              
von Specht, S.2, Author              
Thomas, M.1, Author              
Affiliations:
11.3 Earth System Modelling, 1.0 Geodesy, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146027              
22.6 Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146032              

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 Abstract: In this study, we propose a statistical method to validate sea-level reconstructions using geological records known as sea-level indicators (SLIs). SLIs are often the only available data to retrace late-glacial relative sea level (RSL). Determining the RSL from SLI height is not straight forward, the elevation at which an SLI was found usually does not represent the past RSL. In contrast, it has to be related to past RSL by investigating sample’s type, habitat and deposition conditions. For instance, water distribution at which a specific specimen is found today can be related to the indicator's depositional height range. Furthermore, the precision of dating varies between geological samples, and, in case of radiocarbon dating, the age has to be calibrated using a non-linear calibration curve. To avoid an a-priori assumption like normal-distributed uncertainties, we define likelihood functions which take into account the indicative meaning’s available error information and calibration statistics represented by joint probabilities. For this conceptional study, we restrict ourselves to one type of indicators, shallow-water shells, which are usually considered as low-grade samples giving only a lower limit of former sea level, as the depth range in which they live spreads over several tens of meters, and does not follow a normal distribution. The presented method is aimed to serve as a strategy for glacial isostatic adjustment reconstructions, in this case for the German Paleo-Climate Modelling Initiative PalMod (https://www.palmod.de/en) and by extending it to other SLI types.

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 Dates: 2018-06-012018
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/cp-2018-50
GFZPOF: p3 PT1 Global Processes
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Title: Climate of the Past Discussions
Source Genre: Journal, other, oa
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Pages: 17 Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/151007