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  A Ground Motion Logic Tree for Seismic Hazard Analysis in the Stable Cratonic Region of Europe: Regionalisation, Model Selection and Development of a Scaled Backbone Approach

Weatherill, G., Cotton, F. (2020): A Ground Motion Logic Tree for Seismic Hazard Analysis in the Stable Cratonic Region of Europe: Regionalisation, Model Selection and Development of a Scaled Backbone Approach. - Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, [early online release].
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00940-x

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Item Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5002949 Version Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5002949_3
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Weatherill, Graeme1, Author              
Cotton, Fabrice1, Author              
Affiliations:
12.6 Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146032              

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Free keywords: DEAL Springer Nature
 Abstract: Regions of low seismicity present a particular challenge for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis when identifying suitable ground motion models (GMMs) and quantifying their epistemic uncertainty. The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model adopts a scaled backbone approach to characterise this uncertainty for shallow seismicity in Europe, incorporating region-to-region source and attenuation variability based on European strong motion data. This approach, however, may not be suited to stable cratonic region of northeastern Europe (encompassing Finland, Sweden and the Baltic countries), where exploration of various global geophysical datasets reveals that its crustal properties are distinctly different from the rest of Europe, and are instead more closely represented by those of the Central and Eastern United States. Building upon the suite of models developed by the recent NGA East project, we construct a new scaled backbone ground motion model and calibrate its corresponding epistemic uncertainties. The resulting logic tree is shown to provide comparable hazard outcomes to the epistemic uncertainty modelling strategy adopted for the Eastern United States, despite the different approaches taken. Comparison with previous GMM selections for northeastern Europe, however, highlights key differences in short period accelerations resulting from new assumptions regarding the characteristics of the reference rock and its influence on site amplification.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2020-08-292020
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Method: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s10518-020-00940-x
GFZPOF: p3 PT4 Natural Hazards
 Degree: -

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Title: Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: [early online release] Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: ISSN: 1570-761X
Other: 1573-1456
Other: Springer Nature
CoNE: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals57