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Abstract:
In December 2018, at the conclusion of its second implementation phase, the Global
Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation released its first version of a map outlining the
spatial distribution of seismic hazard at a global scale. The map is the result of an
extensive, joint effort combining the results obtained from a collection of probabilistic
seismic hazard models, called the GEM Mosaic. Together, the map and the underlying
database of models provide an up-to-date view of the earthquake threat globally.
In addition, using the Mosaic, a synopsis of the current state-of-practice in modeling
probabilistic seismic hazard at national and regional scales is possible. The process
adopted for the compilation of the Mosaic adhered to the maximum extent possible
to GEM’s principles of collaboration, inclusiveness, transparency, and reproducibility.
For each region, priority was given to seismic hazard models either developed by
well-recognized national agencies or by large collaborative projects involving local
scientists. The version of the GEM Mosaic presented herein contains 30 probabilistic
seismic hazard models, 14 of which represent national or sub-national models; the
remainder are regional-scale models. We discuss the general qualities of these models,
the underlying framework of the database, and the outlook for the Mosaic’s utility
and its future versions.
