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Abstract:
The growth of global ground-motion databases has allowed generation of nonergodic
ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) based on specific on-site
recordings. Several studies have investigated the differences between the hazard estimates
from ergodic versus non-ergodic GMPEs. Here instead we focus on the impact
of non-ergodic PSHA estimates on the seismic risk of nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom
systems representing ductile structures and compare it with the traditional risk
estimates obtained using ergodic GMPEs. The structure-and-site-specific risk estimates
depend not only on the difference in the hazard estimates but also on the different
hazard-consistent ground-motion record selection that informs the response
calculation. The more accurate structure-and-site-specific non-ergodic risk estimates
show that traditional ones may be biased in a way impossible to predict a priori.
Hence, the use of the non-ergodic approach is recommended, whenever possible.
However, further advancements of non-ergodic GMPEs are necessary before being
routinely utilized in real-life risk assessment applications.
