Deutsch
 
Datenschutzhinweis Impressum
  DetailsucheBrowse

Datensatz

DATENSATZ AKTIONENEXPORT
  Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps

Schneider, M., McDowell, M., Guttorp, P., Steel, E. A., Fleischhut, N. (2022): Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps. - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), 22, 4, 1499-1518.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022

Item is

Dateien

einblenden: Dateien
ausblenden: Dateien
:
5011996.pdf (Verlagsversion), 4MB
Name:
5011996.pdf
Beschreibung:
-
Sichtbarkeit:
Öffentlich
MIME-Typ / Prüfsumme:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technische Metadaten:
Copyright Datum:
-
Copyright Info:
-

Externe Referenzen

einblenden:

Urheber

einblenden:
ausblenden:
 Urheber:
Schneider, Max1, Autor              
McDowell, Michelle2, Autor
Guttorp, Peter2, Autor
Steel, E. Ashley2, Autor
Fleischhut, Nadine2, Autor
Affiliations:
12.6 Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146032              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

Inhalt

einblenden:
ausblenden:
Schlagwörter: -
 Zusammenfassung: Earthquake models can produce aftershock forecasts, which have recently been released to lay audiences. While visualization literature suggests that displaying forecast uncertainty can improve how forecast maps are used, research on uncertainty visualization is missing from earthquake science. We designed a pre-registered online experiment to test the effectiveness of three visualization techniques for displaying aftershock forecast maps and their uncertainty. These maps showed the forecasted number of aftershocks at each location for a week following a hypothetical mainshock, along with the uncertainty around each location’s forecast. Three different uncertainty visualizations were produced: (1) forecast and uncertainty maps adjacent to one another; (2) the forecast map depicted in a color scheme, with the uncertainty shown by the transparency of the color; and (3) two maps that showed the lower and upper bounds of the forecast distribution at each location. We compared the three uncertainty visualizations using tasks that were specifically designed to address broadly applicable and user-generated communication goals. We compared task responses between participants using uncertainty visualizations and using the forecast map shown without its uncertainty (the current practice). Participants completed two map-reading tasks that targeted several dimensions of the readability of uncertainty visualizations. Participants then performed a Comparative Judgment task, which demonstrated whether a visualization was successful in reaching two key communication goals: indicating where many aftershocks and no aftershocks are likely (sure bets) and where the forecast is low but the uncertainty is high enough to imply potential risk (surprises). All visualizations performed equally well in the goal of communicating sure bet situations. But the visualization with lower and upper bounds was substantially better than the other designs at communicating surprises. These results have implications for the visual communication of forecast uncertainty both within and beyond earthquake science.

Details

einblenden:
ausblenden:
Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2022-04-272022
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: -
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022
GFZPOF: p4 T3 Restless Earth
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

Veranstaltung

einblenden:

Entscheidung

einblenden:

Projektinformation

einblenden: ausblenden:
Projektname : Gefördert im Rahmen des Förderprogramms "Open Access Publikationskosten" durch die Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Projektnummer 491075472.
Grant ID : -
Förderprogramm : Open-Access-Publikationskosten (491075472)
Förderorganisation : Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

Quelle 1

einblenden:
ausblenden:
Titel: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS)
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, oa
 Urheber:
Affiliations:
Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 22 (4) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 1499 - 1518 Identifikator: CoNE: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals352
Publisher: Copernicus