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Abstract:
The Ross Sea and the Ross Ice Shelf are relatively stable, despite increasing global anthropogenic pressures, with waters below the Ross Ice Shelf remaining in a cold state. The Ross Sea is an important region for sea ice production, as well as water mass transformation and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water. However, long term observations have shown a trend of freshening in the Ross Sea over the past 6 decades, which is believed to be primarily driven by net mass loss of ice shelves further upstream in the Amundsen Sea. Continued ocean warming and freshening of the Ross Sea has the potential to tip the Ross Ice Shelf cavity from its current cold state to a warm state. This freshening and cold to warm transition could have significant impact on local basal melting (and associated ice mass loss) and deep water formation, as well as farther reaching impacts such as changes to thermohaline circulation and potential sea level rise. We present a regional 1/4° resolution ocean model for the Ross Sea and the surrounding seas, which includes the thermodynamic interaction between ocean and ice shelf. Through perturbations to wind forcing that drives ocean circulation and upstream coastal precipitation reflective of potential future climate conditions, we explore the impacts that these conditions have on ice shelf circulation in the model. Understanding these drivers of change in ocean circulation are essential to understanding the wider implications of climate change on the physical, biogeochemical and biological processes in the Ross Sea.
