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  Long range predictability of atmospheric angular momentum and length of day and implications for climate prediction

Scaife, A. (2023): Long range predictability of atmospheric angular momentum and length of day and implications for climate prediction, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-0033

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Datensatz-Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5017080 Versions-Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5017080_1
Genre: Konferenzbeitrag

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 Urheber:
Scaife, Adam1, Autor
Affiliations:
1IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations, ou_5011304              

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Schlagwörter: -
 Zusammenfassung: We show that fluctuations in atmospheric angular momentum and the length of day are predictable out to more than a year ahead, that this provides an atmospheric source of long-range predictability of surface climate and that it has important implications for our understanding of climate variability. We use ensemble climate predictions to demonstrate long-range predictability of signals in the atmospheric angular momentum field that propagate slowly and coherently polewards due to wave–mean flow interaction within the atmosphere. These predictable signals are shown to precede changes in extratropical climate via the North Atlantic Oscillation and the extratropical jet stream. Our results extend the lead time for length-of-day predictions, demonstrate a source of long-range predictability from within the atmosphere and illustrate a clear link between geodesy and climate prediction. Finally, we will show that our results also lead to an important new insight into climate teleconnections.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2023
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: -
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.57757/IUGG23-0033
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Veranstaltungsort: Berlin
Start-/Enddatum: 2023-07-11 - 2023-07-20

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Titel: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Genre der Quelle: Konferenzband
 Urheber:
Affiliations:
Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: Potsdam : GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
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