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  Multidecadal variability and decadal prediction of wintertime surface air temperature over the East Asian winter monsoon domain

Li, J., Xie, T., Tang, X., Wang, H., Sun, C., Feng, J., Zheng, F., Ding, R. (2023): Multidecadal variability and decadal prediction of wintertime surface air temperature over the East Asian winter monsoon domain, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-1150

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Datensatz-Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5017471 Versions-Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5017471_1
Genre: Konferenzbeitrag

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 Urheber:
Li, Jianping1, Autor
Xie, Tiejun1, Autor
Tang, Xinxin1, Autor
Wang, Hao1, Autor
Sun, Cheng1, Autor
Feng, Juan1, Autor
Zheng, Fei1, Autor
Ding, Ruiqiang1, Autor
Affiliations:
1IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations, ou_5011304              

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Schlagwörter: -
 Zusammenfassung: This study investigates the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature (EASAT) and its decadal prediction. The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT (EAmSAT) display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60–80-year multidecadal variability, apart from a long-term warming trend. The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades, which is conducive to the occurrence of winter extremely cold events in East Asia in recent years. The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12–18 years with a maximumly significant positive correlation at the leading time of 15 years. Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability, but does not affect the robust leading relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT. We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge (COAB) mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of ~15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Africa–Asia multidecadal teleconnection (AAMT) pattern. Based on the COAB mechanism an NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed, with good hindcast performance. The winter EASAT for 2020–2034 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until ~2025, implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia, and then turn towards sharp warming. The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2023
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: -
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.57757/IUGG23-1150
 Art des Abschluß: -

Veranstaltung

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Titel: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Veranstaltungsort: Berlin
Start-/Enddatum: 2023-07-11 - 2023-07-20

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Titel: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Genre der Quelle: Konferenzband
 Urheber:
Affiliations:
Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: Potsdam : GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
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