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Abstract:
Human-induced climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves and heavy rainfall, and their impacts have begun to manifest themselves in the form of various health hazards, wildfires, floods, and other types of damaging events.
Significant risks can arise when the magnitudes of climate change exceed the adaptive capacity of a region. An unprecedented climatic risk could potentially have serious impacts on socioeconomic systems.
Considering the adaptability to extreme climatic risks in the future, this study focused on determining whether humans have been exposed to the risks before, and defined the rim of two-dimensional histograms of population under 20-year extreme temperature and precipitation as a climatic risk boundary. It was revealed that more than 30% (16.3%) of world population in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and other regions will transgress the climatic risk boundary by the end of this century under RCP8.5 (RCP2.6) scenario.
Furthermore, under the assumption that the acceptability of adaptation measures currently adopted by people in other regions cannot avoid the influence of cultural and social aspects, regional climate risk boundary for people in each region is also developed. While many areas with large cities will remain within the global climatic risk boundary, they will transgress their regional climatic risk boundaries. This study shows that it is also necessary to consider the limits to adaptation for each appropriate area, considering the cultural, technological, and social transferability of adaptation, and will help refine public perceptions of extreme climatic risks and lead to more efficient policy making.
