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Can we count on glacial runoff through the 21st century?

Ultee, L., Coats, S., Mackay, J., Rounce, D., Huss, M., Holmgren, E., Maussion, F., Schuster, L., Solomon, S., Wimberly, F., Arndt, M. (2023): Can we count on glacial runoff through the 21st century?, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-2402

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Datensatz-Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5018355 Versions-Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5018355_2

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Urheber:
Ultee, Lizz¹, Autor
Coats, Sloan¹, Autor
Mackay, Jonathan¹, Autor
Rounce, David¹, Autor
Huss, Matthias¹, Autor
Holmgren, Erik¹, Autor
Maussion, Fabien¹, Autor
Schuster, Lilian¹, Autor
Solomon, Samantha¹, Autor
Wimberly, Finn¹, Autor
Arndt, Molly¹, Autor

Affiliations:
1IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations, ou_5011304

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Zusammenfassung: Global climate model projections suggest that 21st century climate change will bring significant drying to many regions. Runoff from glaciers is known to smooth water availability in glaciated basins, but glacier model projections show that glaciers will retreat and glacial runoff will diminish worldwide through the 21st century. So, to what extent can we expect retreating glaciers to protect downstream areas from drought as the climate continues to change? Without dynamic glacier ice in global climate models, a comprehensive picture of future drought conditions in glaciated regions has been elusive. In this talk, we present a global assessment of glacial drought buffering for all large-scale river basins. We analyse a modified drought metric computed from one global glacier model (GloGEM) forced by an ensemble of global climate models. We then extend the analysis to two additional global glacier models (PyGEM and OGGM), which allows us to discuss the robustness of runoff projections to the choice of glacier model. These results will highlight both (i) avenues for continued work on global glacier modelling as well as (ii) implications for work with water management practitioners.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch

Datum: Final veröffentlicht: 2023

Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht

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Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.57757/IUGG23-2402

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Titel: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)

Veranstaltungsort: Berlin

Start-/Enddatum: 2023-07-11 - 2023-07-20

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Titel: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)

Genre der Quelle: Konferenzband

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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: Potsdam : GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

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