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Abstract:
With the rapid decrease of Arctic sea ice and the significant increase of its intensity of interannual variability, the effect of Arctic sea ice on East Asian climate has been significantly enhanced. Arctic sea ice become an import factor to improve East Asian climate prediction skill. Firstly, it is found that that linkage between winter sea ice over Barents Sea (SICBS) and spring dust weather frequency over Northern China has intensified since 1990s. The stronger intensity of interannual variability of SICBS is more easily to influence dust-related atmospheric circulation. Since 1990s, the positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) cause the advection of warm water from the North Atlantic to the Barents Sea, leading to less and thinner sea ice there and increasing year-to-year variability. Secondly, it is found that the linkage between winter SICBS and the spring vegetation NDVI over Eurasia. It is because that increased winter SICBS leads to less and thinner snow cover over Eurasia via atmospheric circulation. Then, the persist of snow cover condition over there results in higher spring temperature and spring higher NDVI over Eurasia. Thirdly, it is found that month-to-month variability of winter temperature over East Asia is linked to Arctic sea ice. Finally, several skillful East Asian climate prediction models are constructed containing the predictor of Arctic sea ice, including dust weather frequency, spring NDVI, temperature, monsoon, drought, etc.
