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  Evaluating the performance of Intensity Prediction Equations for the Italian area

Antonucci, A., Lanzano, G., Rovida, A., Sgobba, S., D'Amico, V., Gomez Capera, ‪. A. (2023): Evaluating the performance of Intensity Prediction Equations for the Italian area, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-2641

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Item Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5019241 Version Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5019241_2
Genre: Conference Paper

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 Creators:
Antonucci, Andrea1, Author
Lanzano, Giovanni1, Author
Rovida, Andrea1, Author
Sgobba, Sara1, Author
D'Amico, Vera1, Author
Gomez Capera, ‪Augusto Antonio1, Author
Affiliations:
1IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations, ou_5011304              

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 Abstract: Intensity Prediction Equations (IPEs) allow predicting the possible macroseismic intensity values at any site, as a function of epicentral distance and epicentral intensity or magnitude. In Italy, different approaches have been proposed in the last years for developing intensity attenuation models. We evaluated the performance of the five most recent IPEs valid for the Italian area comparing their predictions with intensities documented at Italian localities. We built two different testing datasets using the data contained in the most recent versions of the Italian Parametric Earthquake Catalogue CPTI15 and of the Macroseismic Italian Database DBMI15. Dataset 1 contains 213 earthquakes with instrumental location and magnitude from 1907 to 2020, whereas Dataset 2 includes 357 events that occurred from 1117 to 1978 with the epicentral parameters estimated from macroseismic intensity data. We computed the residuals between documented intensity values and predicted intensities using the IPEs. Analyzing these results as a function of the epicentre-to-site distance, of the values of documented intensities and of the magnitude of each considered earthquake, we observed a systematic underprediction for high intensity values in both datasets for all the considered IPEs. We also investigated the between-event residuals to highlight spatial and temporal patterns. The results did not show any particular spatial trends, but a significant temporal dependence of the results for Dataset 2, with an underestimation of the documented values for all the considered IPEs for earthquakes in the period 1000-1700.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.57757/IUGG23-2641
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Title: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Place of Event: Berlin
Start-/End Date: 2023-07-11 - 2023-07-20

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Title: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Source Genre: Proceedings
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Publ. Info: Potsdam : GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
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