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Abstract:
In the middle of the XX century, it was found that in earthquake-prone zones of the Earth, significant deformations (displacement of points) of the Earth's crust occur before the occurrence of earthquakes. The problem arose (Rikitake) – knowing the structure of the terrain (layering, elastic, temperature characteristics) and measuring data of the displacements of the points of the facial surface or the surface located at some depth from the facial surface (to exclude the influence of atmospheric phenomena) of the Earth, what measurement data by inclinometers and strainmeters placed there, determine the stress-strain state (SSS) of the corresponding block of the Earth and track its change over time. Thus, it is possible to trace the entire process of earthquake preparation. This process covers two stages: slow (quasi-static), fast-flowing, jump-like (dynamic: Foreshock, Earthquake, Aftershock). The first stage can last for decades.The authors have found solutions to the corresponding quasi-static and dynamic 3D problems of elasticity theory for a layered package of isotropic plates. The accumulated potential energy of deformation is determined by the values of stresses and displacements (deformations) found. Based on regular measurements, it is possible to trace the process of accumulation of critical potential energy, leading to global destruction – an earthquake.Based on the obtained solution, mathematically computational programs have been created to determine the potential energy of deformations and analyze SSS. According to the well-known Gutenberg-Richter formula, the magnitude of the expected earthquake is estimated. The approach can be applied in all earthquake-prone zones of the Earth.
