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Abstract:
The representation of convection in global models strongly depends on the physical parametrizations, the model resolution and to a lesser extent on the dynamical core. We will present using the ECMWF IFS model challenges in representing convective systems in the 30-3 km resolution range such as tropical cyclones, African squall lines, large-scale tropical waves, shallow convective organisation and winds in the trades. We still largely rely on parametrized convection, but will also discuss the corresponding results with explicit deep convection. For more robust results, we also use the ensemble approach with perturbed physics parameters. No real predictability leap yet, but who knows in the future.
