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Abstract:
Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF) combines early estimates of earthquake parameters with ensembles of urgent tsunami propagation simulations through the Tsunami-HySEA model. In the present implementation, the PTF is initialised by the earthquake information, but not updated further with new data. In the recently started Horizon Europe project DT-GEO work has started upgrading it into a Digital Twin providing a time dependent update of the model when new data becomes available. This enables a close to real time synthesis of data products and numerical models, continuously updating the model forecast as new data are continuously assimilated. In DT-GEO, an extended set of data sources, including improved earthquake solutions, sea level tsunami data, and GNSS, will be integrated. Secondly, the Digital Twin will implement a modularised inclusion of improved wave and source physics through dispersion, non-hydrostatic tsunami generation, inundation, improved earthquake physics, and cascading earthquake triggered landslide tsunamis. The model will be tested at site demonstrators, in the Mediterranean Sea for eastern Sicily and Samos, and in the Pacific Ocean for Chile and Japan. The presentation will explain how the PTF as it works today, followed by an outline of the design of the components in the Digital Twin. The presentation will finally describe initial improvements and plans for further development, including long term plans such as potential integration into Destination Earth and service provision within EPOS-ERIC. This work is supported by the European Union’s Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Program under grant agreement No 101058129 (DT-GEO, https://dtgeo.eu/).
