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Abstract:
Arctic sea ice shrinks rapidly as global warming, further increasing the ocean's absorption of solar heat by reducing surface albedo. A wealth of studies has investigated Arctic sea ice's variability, mechanism and future projection. However, past and future radiative forcing caused by changes in sea ice albedo and the resulting economic impacts remain to be conducted. In this study, we first analyze the evolution of Arctic sea ice radiative forcing (SIRF) from 1982 to 2100 using a radiative kernel method. Then, the SIRF is converted to a carbon equivalent using the DICE model, and the associated economic effect is further estimated by a replacement cost method. Our results provide a systematic understanding of the radiative effects of Arctic sea ice change on the global climate and corresponding economic impacts.
