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Abstract:
Climate changes are accelerating and leading to climate and weather extremes, with the most destructive impacts and negative consequences on the Earth’s planet. The Novel Thunderstorm Alert System (NOTHAS) as a forecast-diagnostic tool has shown initial reliability in more accurate forecasting and early warning of different modes of convection, including local hazards.
In this study, an attempt has been made to apply the system in the prediction of atmospheric convective systems that occur in various climatic regions. The upgraded algorithm, with complex criteria representative of tropical convection showed good coincidence with the available observations. NOTHAS showed a relatively good performance in assessing the dynamics and intensity of Hurricane Ian, which hit the west coast of Florida on 30 Sep 2022 and caused great material damage and human losses. This tool reasonably captured the most intense-extreme Level-5 on Sep 1, 2021, over Nеw York, when catastrophic flooding occurred within the remnants of Hurricane Ida. Likewise, the upgraded model configuration correctly predicted the trajectory, modifications, and strength of super typhoon Nanmadol over Japan (19 Sep 2022), 24-48 hours in advance, and super typhoon Noru over the Philippines (25 Sep 2022).
In general, the obtained results for the examined cases are encouraging and provide a good basis for further research. However, despite these results, our conclusions at the present stage should be moderate, as more sensitivity experiments with improved data assimilation and verification methods are needed in the future for evaluation of the system’s performance and its guidance for weather forecasts and disaster centers worldwide.
