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Abstract:
At the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR), we usually consider two types, short-term and long-term, tsunami hazard assessments. The goal of a short-term hazard assessment is to address real- or near-real-time forecasting of tsunami inundation caused by a specific event in progress. Examples of the short-term hazard assessment include the flooding forecast capability based on the DART data assimilation, and the quick flooding model forecast in the near field assembled during a progressive tsunami. A long-term tsunami hazard assessment, however, is the use of the best-available high-resolution model to identify the long-term, potential impact of tsunami hazards for a coastal community at risk. It is usually based on well-established knowledge of history of the tsunami impact at an interested site. NCTR’s tsunami modeling capability is well recognized in many tsunami hazard assessment projects (Figure 1) that are supported domestically by state and federal stakeholders in the United States, as well as internationally through the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC). In this study, we highlight NCTR’s research in short- and long-term tsunami hazard assessments using both the deterministic and the probabilistic methods, along with a path of two-decade development of deep-ocean observational and modeling technologies within and outside NOAA. These efforts have largely contributed to tsunami inundation forecasting at the NOAA’s Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs), the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP)’s goal of Tsunami-Ready societies, and as well to the establishment of first national and international provision on tsunami load and effect.
