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Abstract:
The eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai ejected an unprecedented amount of water vapor into the stratosphere, with concentrations increasing by a factor of 3-4 locally, and by 5-10% globally. Here we use chemistry climate model ensemble simulations together with satellite measurements to project the global tropospheric impact of the additional stratospheric water vapor up to ten years after the eruption. We will show that surface impacts include warming of up to 2C over north western North America in boreal winter, and a cooling of about 1C over the northern half of Australia in austral winter. These anomalies are expected to peak around five years after eruption, i.e. around the year 2027. Furthermore, we explore a possible link of the eruption to the third consecutive La Niña in 2022 as well as extreme weather events within the first few months of 2022.
