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Abstract:
The climate-related component of high coastal water levels is mainly composed of the storm surge and the wave set-up. Extreme water levels pose a major hazard to coastal regions, as they can cause flooding episodes with negative consequences.This study examines the atmospheric circulation storm conditions over the North Atlantic Ocean associated with extreme climate-induced water levels along the Atlantic coast of Europe. In addition, the projected changes under climate change scenarios in the Atlantic storms are also evaluated. A coastal water level indicator that integrates storm surge and wind-wave set-up components is computed. Maxima values of storm surge and wave setup are estimated from regional European hindcasts for the last three decades. The study analyzes the characteristics of North Atlantic storm tracks derived from sea level pressure fields, such as the track orientation, storm intensity and landfall latitude. The linkage between the atmospheric storm tracks and coastal sea level dynamics helps to discern the storm characteristics responsible for coastal flooding. Additionally, the different contributions between wind-waves and storm surge to coastal extreme water levels is also examined, as well as the variability of these contributions under different atmospheric conditions. Finally, this study assesses the projected changes in storm conditions causing climate-induced coastal water level extremes, and explores the derived changes in coastal hazards.
