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  A model intercomparison project to improve predictions of Mediterranean cyclones

Pantillon, F., Davolio, S., Avolio, E., Carrió, D., Dafis, S., Flaounas, E., Gonzalez Aleman, J. J., Gray, S., Miglietta, M. M., Patlakas, P., Pytharoulis, I., Ricard, D., Ricchi, A., Sanchez, C., Steeneveld, G.-J. (2023): A model intercomparison project to improve predictions of Mediterranean cyclones, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-4130

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Item Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021569 Version Permalink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021569_1
Genre: Conference Paper

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 Creators:
Pantillon, Florian1, Author
Davolio, Silvio1, Author
Avolio, Elenio1, Author
Carrió, Diego1, Author
Dafis, Stavros1, Author
Flaounas, Emmanouil1, Author
Gonzalez Aleman, Juan Jesus1, Author
Gray, Suzanne1, Author
Miglietta, Mario Marcello1, Author
Patlakas, Platon1, Author
Pytharoulis, Ioannis1, Author
Ricard, Didier1, Author
Ricchi, Antonio1, Author
Sanchez, Claudio1, Author
Steeneveld, Gert-Jan1, Author
Affiliations:
1IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations, ou_5011304              

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 Abstract: Cyclones are essential elements of the climate system and water cycle but also major natural hazards in the densely populated Mediterranean basin. In the framework of the COST Action "European network for Mediterranean cyclones in weather and climate - MedCyclones", a model intercomparison project investigates the dynamics and predictability of case studies using modelling setups that are not yet available to operational forecasting systems. The intercomparison involves 10 sets of simulations based on 5 mesoscale models and multiple combinations of physical parameterizations. All sets include the same sensitivity simulations to initial and lateral boundary conditions and horizontal resolution. Here we focus on tropical-like cyclone (Medicane) Ianos that hit Greece in mid September 2020 and was poorly predicted by operational forecasts. Models systematically perform better when initialized from operational IFS analysis data compared to the widely used ERA5 reanalysis. Reducing horizontal grid spacing from 10 km (convection-parameterized) to 2 km (convection-permitting) further improves the cyclone track and intensity. This highlights the critical organization of convection during the early cyclogenesis for the phasing with an upper-level jet. Higher resolution enhances convective activity and favorably preconditions the jet, which controls the subsequent cyclone intensification and evolution.The 10 sets of simulations show robust agreement but also reveal model specificities such as the possible need for a convective parameterization even at 2 km horizontal grid spacing. While they require generalization to other cases of Mediterranean cyclones, the results shall provide guidance for the next generation of global convection-permitting models in weather and climate.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-07-112023-07-11
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.57757/IUGG23-4130
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Title: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Place of Event: Berlin
Start-/End Date: 2023-07-11 - 2023-07-20

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Title: XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Source Genre: Proceedings
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Publ. Info: Potsdam : GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
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