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Abstract:
This article summarizes the ground-motion characterization (GMC) model component of
the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (2022 NZ NSHM). The model development
process included establishing a NZ-specific context through the creation of a new
ground-motion database, and consideration of alternative ground-motion models (GMMs)
that have been historically used in NZ or have been recently developed for global application
with or without NZ-specific regionalizations. Explicit attention was given to models
employing state-of-the-art approaches in terms of their ability to provide robust predictions
when extrapolated beyond the predictor variable scenarios that are well constrained
by empirical data alone. We adopted a “hybrid” logic tree that combined both a “weightson-
models” approach along with backbone models (i.e., metamodels), the former being
the conventional approach to GMC logic tree modeling for NSHM applications using published
models, and the latter being increasingly used in research literature and site-specific
studies. In this vein, two NZ-specific GMMs were developed employing the backbone
model construct. All of the adopted subduction GMMs in the logic tree were further modified
from their published versions to include the effects of increased attenuation in the
back-arc region; and, all but one model was modified to account for the reduction in
ground-motion standard deviations as a result of nonlinear surficial site response. As well
as being based on theoretical arguments, these adjustments were implemented as a result
of hazard sensitivity analyses using models without these effects, which we consider gave
unrealistically high hazard estimates.
