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Atmospheric chemistry; Carbon cycle; Climate and Earth system modelling; Environmental impact; Tropical ecology
Abstract:
Elevated ground-level ozone, a result of human activity, is known to reduce plant productivity, but its influence on tropical forests remains unclear. Here we estimate how increased ozone exposure has affected tropical-forest productivity and the global carbon cycle. We experimentally measure the ozone susceptibility of various tropical tree species, and then incorporate these data into a dynamic global vegetation model. We find that current anthropogenic-derived ozone results in a substantial decline in annual net primary productivity (NPP) across all tropical forests, with some areas being particularly impacted. For example, Asia sees losses of 10.9% (7.2–19.7%) NPP. We calculate that this productivity decline has resulted in a cumulative loss in carbon drawdown of 0.29 PgC per year since 2000, equating to ~17% of the tropical contemporary annual land carbon sink in the twenty-first century. We also find that areas of current and future forest restoration are disproportionately affected by elevated ozone. Future socioeconomic pathways that reduce ozone formation in the tropics will incur benefits to the global carbon budget by relieving the current ozone impacts seen across both intact forest and areas of forest restoration, which are critical terrestrial regions for mitigation of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide.
