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Abstract:
The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) extends for over 1,000 km across Türkiye and poses significant seismic hazard in the region. The Main Marmara Fault (MMF) segment of the NAF in the Sea of Marmara (NW Türkiye), exhibits along-strike segmentation in its interseismic strain accumulation. Constraining the lithospheric configuration below the MMF is critical to understand its segmentation and assessing seismic hazard in the area. We present a new 3D lithospheric-scale density of the Sea of Marmara, that combines gravity modeling and seismic tomography analysis. Using forward and inverse gravity modeling with free-air gravity data and available constraints of geological units we derived the intra-crustal density structure. Shear-wave velocity tomography models provided insights into the temperature and density configuration of the uppermost mantle, and the geometry of the 1330°C isotherm. Our results highlight significant crustal density variations: lower-density crust in the Sakarya Zone and Strandja Massif, and denser crust below the Istanbul Zone, which overlies a relatively hotter lithospheric mantle. This lithospheric configuration reflects both ongoing tectonic processes and inheritance from past geological events, including the drifting of the Istanbul Zone crustal block and the signature of past subduction events. The extent of the Istanbul Zone denser crust spatially correlates with the locked segment of the MMF. The bimaterial nature of the fault segment likely influences its interseismic and coseismic behavior. The denser, stiffer Istanbul Zone crust would promote interseismically locked conditions in contrast to the adjacent, more compliant crustal block and could result in asymmetric rupture with a preferred directivity.
