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Abstract

We infer regional mass changes in Antarctica using ca. 4 years of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) level 2 data. We decompose the time series of the Stokes coefficients into their linear as well as annual and semi-annual components by a least-squares adjustment and apply a statistical reliability test to the Stokes potential-coefficients' linear temporal trends. Mass changes in three regions of Antarctica that display prominent geoid-height change are determined by adjusting predictions of glacier melting at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the Amundsen Sea Sector, and of the glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) over the Ronne Ice Shelf. We use the GFZ RL04, CNES RL01C, JPL RL04 and CSR RL04 potential-coefficient releases, and show that, although all data sets consistently reflect the prominent mass changes, differences in the mass-change estimates are considerably larger than the uncertainties estimated by the propagation of the GRACE errors. We then use the bootstrapping method based on the four releases and six time intervals, each with 3.5 years of data, to quantify the variability of the mean mass-change estimates. We find 95% of our estimates to lie within 0.08 and 0.09 mm/a equivalent sea-level (ESL) change for the Antarctic Peninsula and within 0.18 and 0.20 mm/a ESL for the Amundsen Sea Sector. Forward modelling of the GIA over the Ronne Ice Shelf region suggests that the Antarctic continent was covered by 8.4 to 9.4 m ESL of additional ice during the Last-Glacial Maximum (ca. 22 to 15 ka BP). With regards to the mantle-viscosity values and the glacial history used, this value is considered as a minimum estimate. The mass-change estimates derived from all GRACE releases and time intervals lie within ca. 20% (Amundsen Sea Sector), 30% (Antarctic Peninsula) and 50% (Ronne Ice Shelf region) of the bootstrap-estimated mean, demonstrating the reliability of results obtained using GRACE observations.