The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

Basili, Roberto; Brizuela, Beatriz; Herrero, André; Iqbal, Sarfraz; Lorito, Stefano; Maesano, Francesco Emanuele; Murphy, Shane; Perfetti, Paolo; Romano, Fabrizio; Scala, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Taroni, Matteo; Tiberti, Mara Monica; Thio, Hong Kie; Tonini, Roberto; Volpe, Manuela; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl Bonnevie; Løvholt, Finn; Baptista, Maria Ana; Carrilho, Fernando; Matias, Luis Manuel; Omira, Rachid; Babeyko, A. Y.; Hoechner, A.; Gürbüz, Mücahit; Pekcan, Onur; Yalçıner, Ahmet; Canals, Miquel; Lastras, Galderic; Agalos, Apostolos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos; Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Benchekroun, Sabah; Agrebi Jaouadi, Hedi; Ben Abdallah, Samir; Bouallegue, Atef; Hamdi, Hassene; Oueslati, Foued; Amato, Alessandro; Armigliato, Alberto; Behrens, Jörn; Davies, Gareth; Di Bucci, Daniela; Dolce, Mauro; Geist, Eric; Gonzalez Vida, Jose Manuel; González, Mauricio; Macías Sánchez, Jorge; Meletti, Carlo; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Pagani, Marco; Parsons, Tom; Polet, Jascha; Power, William; Sørensen, Mathilde; Zaytsev, Andrey

doi:10.3389/feart.2020.616594

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The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

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Basili, Roberto
External Organizations;

Brizuela, Beatriz
External Organizations;

Herrero, André
External Organizations;

Iqbal, Sarfraz
External Organizations;

Lorito, Stefano
External Organizations;

Maesano, Francesco Emanuele
External Organizations;

Murphy, Shane
External Organizations;

Perfetti, Paolo
External Organizations;

Romano, Fabrizio
External Organizations;

Scala, Antonio
External Organizations;

Selva, Jacopo
External Organizations;

Taroni, Matteo
External Organizations;

Tiberti, Mara Monica
External Organizations;

Thio, Hong Kie
External Organizations;

Tonini, Roberto
External Organizations;

Volpe, Manuela
External Organizations;

Glimsdal, Sylfest
External Organizations;

Harbitz, Carl Bonnevie
External Organizations;

Løvholt, Finn
External Organizations;

Baptista, Maria Ana
External Organizations;

Carrilho, Fernando
External Organizations;

Matias, Luis Manuel
External Organizations;

Omira, Rachid
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/babeyko

Babeyko, A. Y.
2.5 Geodynamic Modelling, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/hoechner

Hoechner, A.
2.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Gürbüz, Mücahit
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Pekcan, Onur
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Yalçıner, Ahmet
External Organizations;

Canals, Miquel
External Organizations;

Lastras, Galderic
External Organizations;

Agalos, Apostolos
External Organizations;

Papadopoulos, Gerassimos
External Organizations;

Triantafyllou, Ioanna
External Organizations;

Benchekroun, Sabah
External Organizations;

Agrebi Jaouadi, Hedi
External Organizations;

Ben Abdallah, Samir
External Organizations;

Bouallegue, Atef
External Organizations;

Hamdi, Hassene
External Organizations;

Oueslati, Foued
External Organizations;

Amato, Alessandro
External Organizations;

Armigliato, Alberto
External Organizations;

Behrens, Jörn
External Organizations;

Davies, Gareth
External Organizations;

Di Bucci, Daniela
External Organizations;

Dolce, Mauro
External Organizations;

Geist, Eric
External Organizations;

Gonzalez Vida, Jose Manuel
External Organizations;

González, Mauricio
External Organizations;

Macías Sánchez, Jorge
External Organizations;

Meletti, Carlo
External Organizations;

Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren
External Organizations;

Pagani, Marco
External Organizations;

Parsons, Tom
External Organizations;

Polet, Jascha
External Organizations;

Power, William
External Organizations;

Sørensen, Mathilde
External Organizations;

Zaytsev, Andrey
External Organizations;

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Zitation

Basili, R., Brizuela, B., Herrero, A., Iqbal, S., Lorito, S., Maesano, F. E., Murphy, S., Perfetti, P., Romano, F., Scala, A., Selva, J., Taroni, M., Tiberti, M. M., Thio, H. K., Tonini, R., Volpe, M., Glimsdal, S., Harbitz, C. B., Løvholt, F., Baptista, M. A., Carrilho, F., Matias, L. M., Omira, R., Babeyko, A. Y., Hoechner, A., Gürbüz, M., Pekcan, O., Yalçıner, A., Canals, M., Lastras, G., Agalos, A., Papadopoulos, G., Triantafyllou, I., Benchekroun, S., Agrebi Jaouadi, H., Ben Abdallah, S., Bouallegue, A., Hamdi, H., Oueslati, F., Amato, A., Armigliato, A., Behrens, J., Davies, G., Di Bucci, D., Dolce, M., Geist, E., Gonzalez Vida, J. M., González, M., Macías Sánchez, J., Meletti, C., Ozer Sozdinler, C., Pagani, M., Parsons, T., Polet, J., Power, W., Sørensen, M., Zaytsev, A. (2021): The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18). - Frontiers in Earth Science, 8, 616594.
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.616594

Zitierlink: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5006814

Zusammenfassung

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.