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SODA – a forecast service to predict storm induced satellite orbit decays

Authors

Krauss,  Sandro
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Temmer,  Manuela
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Drescher,  Lukas
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Süsser-Rechberger,  Barbara
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Kroisz,  Sofia
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Strasser,  Andreas
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Mayer-Guerr,  Torsten
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Krauss, S., Temmer, M., Drescher, L., Süsser-Rechberger, B., Kroisz, S., Strasser, A., Mayer-Guerr, T. (2023): SODA – a forecast service to predict storm induced satellite orbit decays, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-0710


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5016778
Abstract
With the strong rise of the current solar cycle 25 also the number of solar eruptions, like solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), increases. These solar events have the capability to trigger geomagnetic storms, which may disrupt and damage satellites in space as well as technical infrastructure on Earth. The forecasting tool SODA (Satellite Orbit DecAy) is based on an interdisciplinary analysis of geodetic observations and solar wind in-situ measurements, and was developed in cooperation between the University of Graz and the Graz University of Technology. It allows the prediction of the impact of CME events on the altitude of low Earth orbiting satellites with a lead time of 15 hours. To calculate the storm induced orbit decay we analyzed 299 CME events over a period of 15 years. Appropriated variations in the thermospheric neutral mass density, were derived from measurements of the CHAMP, GRACE and SWARM satellite missions. In addition we investigated deviations in the magnetic field component Bz measured by the ACE and the DSCOVR spacecraft at the L1 point. The analysis of the CME induced orbit decays and the interplanetary magnetic field showed a strong correlation as well as a time delay between the CME and the associated thermospheric response. This correlation is implemented in the real time forecasting tool SODA, which is implemented in the ESA Space Safety Program (Ionospheric Weather Expert Service Center).