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Conference Paper

Hailstorms and climate change

Authors

Raupach,  Timothy
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Martius,  Olivia
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Allen,  John
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Kunz,  Michael
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Lasher-Trapp,  Sonia
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Mohr,  Susanna
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Rasmussen,  Kristen
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Trapp,  Robert
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Zhang,  Qinghong
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Raupach, T., Martius, O., Allen, J., Kunz, M., Lasher-Trapp, S., Mohr, S., Rasmussen, K., Trapp, R., Zhang, Q. (2023): Hailstorms and climate change, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-0707


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5016782
Abstract
>Hailstorms and climate changeHail is a dangerous phenomenon that regularly causes significant damage and high insured losses around the world. Hailstorms are expected to be affected by climate change, yet the exact nature of these changes remains difficult to quantify and therefore highly uncertain globally. Broadly, a warmer atmosphere would be expected to have higher instability, leading to stronger updrafts that can support larger hailstones; a higher melting-level height, leading to increased melting of smaller hailstones; and reduced overall vertical wind shear, affecting hailstone sizes and storm severity. However, observations and modelling studies worldwide show large geographical variability in these changes and therefore a range of hailstorm responses. Hailstorms, being small-scale and relatively rare, are difficult to observe and to model, meaning there are few long-term datasets suitable for temporal trend analysis, and few projections for future scenarios. There are also gaps in process understanding that complicate efforts to predict changes in hailstorm frequency or severity from changes in other atmospheric variables. In this talk I will present an overview of the current state of knowledge on climate change effects on hailstorms. I will explain how climate change is expected to affect the three factors of instability, microphysical processes, and vertical wind shear. I will review previous results on observed and modelled changes to hailstorms by world region, and explain why uncertainties exist. Finally, I will show recommendations for future study on this important topic.