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Abstract

Synoptic-scale cyclones in the Arctic are an important source of short-term sea-ice variability during the melt season. This study examines whether recent changes to the Arctic environment have made Arctic cyclones during the summer months more destructive to sea ice on short time scales. We compare the 1-7 day changes in sea-ice area and thickness following days in each month with and without cyclones from two decades: 1991-2000 and 2009-2018. Of the three months examined (June-August), only August cyclones locally accelerate seasonal sea-ice loss on average, and the ability of August cyclones to accelerate ice loss has become more pronounced in the recent decade. The recent increase in ice loss following August cyclones is most evident in the Amerasian Arctic (140ºE-120ºW), where reanalyses indicate that the average upper-ocean temperature has increased by 0.2-0.8ºC and the average ice thickness has decreased by almost 1 m between the two decades. Such changes promote cyclone-induced ocean mixing and sea-ice divergence that locally increase the likelihood for rapid ice loss near cyclones. In contrast, June cyclones in both decades locally slow down seasonal sea-ice loss. Moreover, the 7-day sea-ice loss in June has increased by a larger amount in the absence of cyclones than in the presence of cyclones. The largest increases in June ice loss occur in the Eurasian Arctic (0-140ºE), where substantial reductions in average surface albedo in the recent decade have allowed more of the abundant insolation in the absence of cyclones to be absorbed at the sea surface.