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Abstract

Super typhoons (SuperTYs) generated in the Northwest Pacific (WNP) constantly undergo a sharp weakening after crossing the Philippines-Taiwan into the South China Sea (SCS), thus acting as a natural “buffer” to protect the south-eastern coast of China from severe typhoons due to the blockage of the mountains and the unique atmospheric and oceanic environmental fields. This study examines the determinants of this buffer zone and speculates on the response of this part of the SuperTYs in future climate change. Here, we show that the strong vertical wind shear accompanying the South China Sea summer monsoon is a determining factor in the weakening of SuperTYs into the buffer zone, with a linear correlation up to 0.71. Although most studies suggest that the risk of severe typhoons will increase with global warming, our diagnosis of the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble shows that the decisive factor, vertical wind shear, will not change in trend even in the worst scenario. Therefore, the risk of a severe typhoon making landfall off the southeast coast of China is not getting any worse in future global warming.