Assessed the variation of sea ice radiative forcing over the Arctic region from 
1982 to 2100 and estimated the cost

Hao, Hairui

doi:10.57757/IUGG23-3733

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Assessed the variation of sea ice radiative forcing over the Arctic region from 1982 to 2100 and estimated the cost

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Hao, Hairui
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Hao, H. (2023): Assessed the variation of sea ice radiative forcing over the Arctic region from 1982 to 2100 and estimated the cost, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-3733

Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020810

Abstract

Arctic sea ice shrinks rapidly as global warming, further increasing the ocean's absorption of solar heat by reducing surface albedo. A wealth of studies has investigated Arctic sea ice's variability, mechanism and future projection. However, past and future radiative forcing caused by changes in sea ice albedo and the resulting economic impacts remain to be conducted. In this study, we first analyze the evolution of Arctic sea ice radiative forcing (SIRF) from 1982 to 2100 using a radiative kernel method. Then, the SIRF is converted to a carbon equivalent using the DICE model, and the associated economic effect is further estimated by a replacement cost method. Our results provide a systematic understanding of the radiative effects of Arctic sea ice change on the global climate and corresponding economic impacts.