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Conference Paper

Model diversity in multidecadal NAO variability explained by stratosphere-troposphere coupling

Authors

Bonnet,  Remy
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

McKenna,  Christine
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Saffin,  Leo
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Maycock,  Amanda
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Bonnet, R., McKenna, C., Saffin, L., Maycock, A. (2023): Model diversity in multidecadal NAO variability explained by stratosphere-troposphere coupling, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-4679


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021088
Abstract
Climate models systematically underestimate multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) compared to observations. It has been suggested that weak atmosphere-ocean coupling associated with Atlantic Multidecadal Variability may explain the weak NAO variance. However, it could also be a manifestation of the signal-to-noise paradox identified on seasonal-to-decadal timescales, which has been linked to weak eddy-mean flow feedback in models. Here we examine multi-model large ensemble simulations and show that around three fifths of the inter-model spread in multidecadal NAO variance can be explained by stratospheric polar vortex variability and stratosphere-troposphere coupling strength, and not by the magnitude of AMV-NAO coupling as previously suggested. We further show there is a relationship across models between multidecadal NAO variability and eddy-mean flow feedback strength, suggesting the mechanism for weak North Atlantic signals identified on seasonal to decadal timescales may also operate on multidecadal timescales.