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Abstract

The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is currently losing mass at an accelerated rate, due to atmospheric and ocean warming causing respectively enhanced melt and ice discharge to the ocean. Regional Climate Models have provided assessment of future changes in Surface Mass Balance (SMB) by dynamically downscaling the climate change simulated by Earth System Models. However, this approach prevents the coupling between global climate and ice sheet surface. Here, we present a summary of scientific results on future evolution of the GrIS SMB with the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). This model incorporates advanced simulation of snow/firn processes (compaction, albedo, refreezing) within the land component and coupling to the atmosphere, as well to downscaling to a resolution of 4 km via elevation classes. We present results for a range of SSP and idealized scenarios at the century and multi-century scales, with a focus on evolution on the energy sources for melt. We also present results from an artificial neural network trained with CESM2 atmospheric variables and surface melt estimates to provide GrIS melt projections from the suite of CMIP6 models.