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Conference Paper

Visualization of aftershock forecasts driven by user needs

Authors

Schneider,  Max
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Wein,  Anne
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

van der Elst,  Nicholas
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

McBride,  Sara K.
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Becker,  Julia
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Castro,  Raul
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Diaz,  Manuel
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Gonzalez-Huizar,  Hector
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Hardebeck,  Jeanne
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Michael,  Andrew
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Mixco,  Luis
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Page,  Morgan
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Schneider, M., Wein, A., van der Elst, N., McBride, S. K., Becker, J., Castro, R., Diaz, M., Gonzalez-Huizar, H., Hardebeck, J., Michael, A., Mixco, L., Page, M. (2023): Visualization of aftershock forecasts driven by user needs, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-4881


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021283
Abstract
The U.S. Geological Survey releases aftershock forecasts following large (M5+) earthquakes in the U.S. and associated territories. Forecasts show the expected number (and range) of aftershocks in a specified area for various magnitude thresholds and time durations. Forecasts are released using a product template that contains tables and text. Visualizing these aftershock forecasts can more effectively communicate this information. In particular, we seek to identify which forecast visualizations (including maps) can serve a variety of user groups. First, we hold workshops with members of target user groups, including emergency managers, civil engineers, critical infrastructure operators, science communicators, and the media. In these workshops, users perform activities to elicit specific user needs on the dimensions of aftershock forecast information needed by their role (informational needs) and how this information would optimally be displayed (product needs). We then develop a suite of forecast graphics and maps based on these informational and product needs. We furthermore plan to run a user experiment to test a subset of these forecast products. In the experiment, participants from these target groups will use different forecast products to perform decision-making tasks based on common use cases of aftershock forecasts. Such an experiment can reveal the characteristics of forecast products that can effectively communicate the forecast across user groups. Workshops and experiments will be held with participants from the U.S., Mexico, and El Salvador to identify cross-cultural components of effective forecast communication. We present preliminary results from several user workshops and discuss next steps in the research agenda.