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Conference Paper

Earthquake forecasting in New Zealand: Past, present and future

Authors

Christophersen,  Annemarie
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Gerstenberger,  Matt C.
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Rhoades,  David A.
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Bourguignon,  Sandra
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Graham,  Kenny
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Jacobs,  Katie
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Rastin,  Sepideh J.
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Rollins,  Chris
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Christophersen, A., Gerstenberger, M. C., Rhoades, D. A., Bourguignon, S., Graham, K., Jacobs, K., Rastin, S. J., Rollins, C. (2023): Earthquake forecasting in New Zealand: Past, present and future, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-5040


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021437
Abstract
Researchers from New Zealand have engaged in developing and testing earthquake forecasting models for many decades. The existing earthquake forecasting models can be classified into three categories, (1) short-term or aftershock models that describe the decay of the earthquake occurrence rate following a large event, (2) medium-term models that are variations of the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) model, which is based on the observation that the size and frequency of earthquake occurrence tends to increase in the vicinity of an upcoming large earthquake and aims to forecast upcoming large events in the coming months to decades, and (3) long-term models. In 2010, following the M7.1 Darfield earthquake that initiated the Canterbury earthquake sequence, GNS Science began to provide earthquake forecasts to the public. There were several further earthquake responses over the years, the largest being the 2011 M6.2 Christchurch earthquake and the 2016 M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake. A new automated seismic processing software, introduced in 2012, caused inconsistencies in the earthquake catalogue, especially with magnitudes. It has been a slow process to resolve these issues. In the meantime, we have been limited to forecast earthquakes of magnitude 5 and larger. In the future, we envisage to have an automated system provide regular earthquake forecasts to the public, and to engage more with users to provide the information that they need for decision-making in a seismic crisis and for planning for earthquake resilience.