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Exploring the impacts of AMOC slowdown on the European energy sector

Authors

Hodge,  Katie
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Sanderson,  Michael
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Dawkins,  Laura
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Wood,  Richard
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

Lowe,  Jason
IUGG 2023, General Assemblies, 1 General, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), External Organizations;

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Citation

Hodge, K., Sanderson, M., Dawkins, L., Wood, R., Lowe, J. (2023): Exploring the impacts of AMOC slowdown on the European energy sector, XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (Berlin 2023).
https://doi.org/10.57757/IUGG23-4199


Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5021638
Abstract
High impact low likelihood events such as a major slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) remain an area of uncertainty in the climate modelling, impacts, adaptation and policy making communities. In order to avoid policy lock-ins and maladaptation, it is important to explore the possible impacts of AMOC slowdown to inform adaptation and policy measures in the UK and Europe. Previous studies have demonstrated key impacts of AMOC slowdown on the UK and Europe such as changes in extreme events, temperature and precipitation patterns. However, the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment identified AMOC strength and associated societal impacts as a key gap in understanding and a need for assessing related future climate risks and opportunities. Using approaches that include climate storylines, we use model runs with diverging AMOC responses to explore the potential impacts of an AMOC slowdown on the energy sector. As climate policy focuses on both mitigation (Net Zero) and adaptation to the impacts of climate change, this work is particularly relevant to renewable generation and changing energy demands.