Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 M W 7.8 Kahramanmaraş 
earthquake, Türkiye

Kwiatek, G.; Martinez Garzon, P.; Becker, Dirk; Dresen, G.; Cotton, Fabrice; Beroza, G. C.; Acarel, D.; Ergintav, S.; Bohnhoff, M.

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-42419-8

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Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 M W 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye

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/persons/resource/kwiatek

Kwiatek, G.
4.2 Geomechanics and Scientific Drilling, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/patricia

Martinez Garzon, P.
4.2 Geomechanics and Scientific Drilling, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/dbecker

Becker, Dirk
4.2 Geomechanics and Scientific Drilling, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/dre

Dresen, G.
4.2 Geomechanics and Scientific Drilling, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

/persons/resource/fcotton

Cotton, Fabrice
2.6 Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

Beroza, G. C.

Acarel, D.

Ergintav, S.

/persons/resource/bohnhoff

Bohnhoff, M.
4.2 Geomechanics and Scientific Drilling, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum;

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Citation

Kwiatek, G., Martinez Garzon, P., Becker, D., Dresen, G., Cotton, F., Beroza, G. C., Acarel, D., Ergintav, S., Bohnhoff, M. (2023): Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 M W 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye. - Nature Communications, 14, 7534.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42419-8

Cite as: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5022879

Abstract

Short term prediction of earthquake magnitude, time, and location is currently not possible. In some cases, however, documented observations have been retrospectively considered as precursory. Here we present seismicity transients starting approx. 8 months before the 2023 MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake on the East Anatolian Fault Zone. Seismicity is composed of isolated spatio-temporal clusters within 65 km of future epicentre, displaying non-Poissonian inter-event time statistics, magnitude correlations and low Gutenberg-Richter b-values. Local comparable seismic transients have not been observed, at least since 2014. Close to epicentre and during the weeks prior to its rupture, only scarce seismic activity was observed. The trends of seismic preparatory attributes for this earthquake follow those previously documented in both laboratory stick-slip tests and numerical models of heterogeneous earthquake rupture affecting multiple fault segments. More comprehensive earthquake monitoring together with long-term seismic records may facilitate recognizing earthquake preparation processes from other regional deformation transients.