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Abstract:
Geodynamic processes inside planet earth drive crustal scale tectonics and surface processes some of which are associated with geohazards. Because the driver is slow, hazardous events occur infrequent enough to escape society’s generally short-term awareness. However, its ultimate impact on society can be significant as evidenced by recent geo-catastrophes like the Sumatra and Japan subduction earthquakes and tsunami. Physical modelling of geohazards therefore becomes an increasingly important tool to understand our longterm exposure. At GFZ we combine analogue and numerical models in order to better understand the interplay between geodynamic processes at depth and geohazards like earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis. By simulating long time series of continuous and episodic processes, we provide archives of potentially hazardous events that allow statistical analysis beyond the instrumental record and, together with physics-based modeling a deeper knowledge of the underlying processes with the aim to provide probabilistic and, where reasonable, deterministic predictions of spatio-temporal pattern of tectonic hazards.
