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  Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards

Merz, B., Kuhlicke, C., Kunz, M., Pittore, M., Babeyko, A. Y., Bresch, D. N., Domeisen, D. I. V., Feser, F., Koszalka, I., Kreibich, H., Pantillon, F., Parolai, S., Pinto, J. G., Punge, H. J., Rivalta, E., Schröter, K., Strehlow, K., Weisse, R., Wurpts, A. (2020): Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards. - Reviews of Geophysics, 58, 4, e2020RG000704.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704

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 Creators:
Merz, B.1, Author              
Kuhlicke, Christian2, Author
Kunz, Michael2, Author
Pittore, Massimiliano3, Author              
Babeyko, A. Y.4, Author              
Bresch, David N.2, Author
Domeisen, Daniela I. V.2, Author
Feser, Frauke2, Author
Koszalka, Inga2, Author
Kreibich, H.1, Author              
Pantillon, Florian2, Author
Parolai, Stefano2, Author
Pinto, Joaquim G.2, Author
Punge, Heinz Jürgen2, Author
Rivalta, E.5, Author              
Schröter, Kai1, Author              
Strehlow, Karen2, Author
Weisse, Ralf2, Author
Wurpts, Andreas2, Author
Affiliations:
14.4 Hydrology, 4.0 Geosystems, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146048              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
32.6 Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146032              
42.5 Geodynamic Modelling, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146031              
52.1 Physics of Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 2.0 Geophysics, Departments, GFZ Publication Database, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, ou_146029              

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Free keywords: DEAL Wiley
 Abstract: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2020-08-242020
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1029/2020RG000704
GFZPOF: p3 PT4 Natural Hazards
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Title: Reviews of Geophysics
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 58 (4) Sequence Number: e2020RG000704 Start / End Page: - Identifier: ISSN: 1944-9208
Other: Wiley
Other: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
CoNE: https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals431
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)